1 Employee Debt

## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'Dataset'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
Total Employee Debt by Entity and Year
Dataset year total_employee_debt
City 2020 347611176292
City 2021 321349270209
City 2022 292943121949
County 2020 212341520461
County 2021 215283148045
County 2022 169588944680
SD 2020 390796402705
SD 2021 426683530903
SD 2022 315437044335
State 2020 1235541058529
State 2021 1346791618238
State 2022 1077609632518

1.1 Employee Debt Ranking By Entity

1.1.1 States

1.1.2 Cities

1.1.3 Counties

1.1.4 School Districts

2 The Budget

2.1 Debt to GDP Ratio

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

3 Statistical Tests

3.0.0.1 Is partisan Lean as a predictor of debt/gdp ratio?

Partisan lean explains about 28.13% of the variability in debt_to_GDP_ratio (**)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = debt_to_GDP_ratio ~ log(lean), data = State3y_debtGDP_ratio_2)
## 
## Residuals:
##    Min     1Q Median     3Q    Max 
## -7.095 -5.577 -2.404  3.025 14.831 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)    5.452      4.080   1.336   0.1991  
## log(lean)      4.101      1.590   2.580   0.0195 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 7.092 on 17 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2813, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2391 
## F-statistic: 6.655 on 1 and 17 DF,  p-value: 0.01948

3.0.0.2 Is population as a predictor of Net Pension Liability?

Population explains 14.98% of the variability in the net pension liability (***)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = net_pension_liability ~ log(population), data = State3y_debtGDP_ratio_2)
## 
## Residuals:
##          Min           1Q       Median           3Q          Max 
## -44309311004 -17563340509  -2003468249   4466882069 102015454800 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate    Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)     -213465931342  104184854027  -2.049   0.0562 .
## log(population)   15354874348    6819389377   2.252   0.0379 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 32280000000 on 17 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2297, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1844 
## F-statistic:  5.07 on 1 and 17 DF,  p-value: 0.03786

3.0.0.3 Is population as a predictor of Net OPEB Liability?

Population explains about 31.21% of the variability in the net OPEB liability (***)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = net_opeb_liability ~ log(population), data = State3y_debtGDP_ratio_2)
## 
## Residuals:
##          Min           1Q       Median           3Q          Max 
## -32984911853 -17608027121   3596809542  11233737075  53399071062 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate    Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)     -272048168891   73153015707  -3.719 0.001706 ** 
## log(population)   19165852594    4788209408   4.003 0.000922 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 22660000000 on 17 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4852, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4549 
## F-statistic: 16.02 on 1 and 17 DF,  p-value: 0.0009218

3.0.0.4 Is partisan lean a good predictor of Net Pension Liability?

There is no significant relationship between partisan lean and net pension liability.

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lean ~ log(net_pension_liability), data = State3y_debtGDP_ratio_2)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -11.371  -8.317  -3.416   9.233  16.463 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                 -23.042     30.733  -0.750    0.464
## log(net_pension_liability)    1.701      1.369   1.243    0.231
## 
## Residual standard error: 10.13 on 17 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.08331,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.02939 
## F-statistic: 1.545 on 1 and 17 DF,  p-value: 0.2307

3.0.0.5 Is partisan lean a good predictor of Net OPEB Liability?

there is no significant relationship between net OPEB liability and partisan lean

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = lean ~ log(net_opeb_liability), data = State3y_debtGDP_ratio_2)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -12.932  -7.522  -3.084   7.511  16.599 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                         Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)              -23.828     26.581  -0.896    0.383
## log(net_opeb_liability)    1.742      1.187   1.468    0.160
## 
## Residual standard error: 9.963 on 17 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1125, Adjusted R-squared:  0.06031 
## F-statistic: 2.155 on 1 and 17 DF,  p-value: 0.1603

3.0.0.6 Is partisan lean a good predictor of per capita employee debt?

There is no significant relationship between partisan lean and employee debt per capita.

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = employee_debt_per_capita ~ log(lean), data = State3y_debtGDP_ratio_2)
## 
## Residuals:
##    Min     1Q Median     3Q    Max 
##  -4993  -3372  -2060   1161  11851 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)     1562       2993   0.522    0.608
## log(lean)       1743       1166   1.495    0.153
## 
## Residual standard error: 5203 on 17 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1162, Adjusted R-squared:  0.06417 
## F-statistic: 2.234 on 1 and 17 DF,  p-value: 0.1533

4 Moves in Unfunded Liabiities from 2020-2021

4.1 By Entity

Moves in Unfunded Liabilities from 2020-2021

4.1.0.1 Figure 1:Total Unfunded Liabilities by Entity from 2020-2022

4.1.0.1.1 Figure 2:Rate of Change in Unfunded Liabilities by Entity from 2020-2022

Combined Change Data Arranged by Dataset
Dataset year TotalOPEB TotalNPL
City 2020 $156,522,239,133 $178,384,996,141
City 2021 $165,964,671,391 $141,260,147,751
City 2022 $130,905,745,444 $146,684,931,141
County 2020 $88,087,255,809 $114,215,472,120
County 2021 $92,040,044,677 $111,117,569,436
County 2022 $81,023,510,007 $77,250,886,492
SD 2020 $306,910,533,728 $234,103,265,490
SD 2021 $334,204,539,712 $260,126,175,028
SD 2022 $284,753,087,046 $219,188,455,066
State 2020 $524,908,977,684 $684,637,170,415
State 2021 $574,806,860,928 $743,183,954,659
State 2022 $528,409,889,023 $520,514,394,453
Changes in Total OPEB Unfunded Liabilities 2020-2022 by Entity
Entity NPL Change NPL Percent Change Net OPEB Change OPEB Percent Change
State -$164,122,775,962 -24.0% $3,500,911,339 0.67%
SD -$14,914,810,424 -6.4% -$22,157,446,682 -7.22%
City -$31,700,065,000 -17.8% -$25,616,493,689 -16.37%
County -$36,964,585,628 -32.4% -$7,063,745,802 -8.02%

4.2 By Population

Moves in Unfunded Liabiities from 2020-2021

4.2.0.1 Cities

4.2.0.1.1 Figure 3:Correlation between Population and Unfunded Liabilities in 2020 - 2022
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
States: Correlation Between % Difference in NPL Population

States: Correlation Between % Difference in NPL Population 

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
Cities: Correlation Between % Difference in NPL Population

Cities: Correlation Between % Difference in NPL Population 

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
Counties: Correlation Between % Difference in NPL Population

Counties: Correlation Between % Difference in NPL Population 

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
School Districts: Correlation Between % Difference in NPL Population

School Districts: Correlation Between % Difference in NPL Population

Total Unfunded Liabilities 2020-2022 - Cities divided by Population Quartiles

Total Unfunded Liabilities 2020-2022 - Cities divided by Population Quartiles

Population Ranges of Each City Quartile (2022)
Quartile Min Max
1 208,640 259,520
2 263,914 383,998
3 384,661 631,539
4 639,115 8,804,194
4.2.0.1.2 Figure 4:Total Unfunded Liabilities 2020-2022 - Cities divided by Population Quartiles
Changes in City Unfunded Liabilities by Population Quartiles
Year Pop Quartile Total NPL % Change from Previous Year $ Change from Previous Year
2021 1 $5,228,004,831 -3% -$137,372,891
2022 1 $3,224,089,824 -38% -$2,003,915,007
2021 2 $9,216,231,780 -14% -$1,553,009,578
2022 2 $6,740,056,661 -27% -$2,476,175,119
2021 3 $18,077,273,298 0% -$7,913,508
2022 3 $13,913,327,591 -23% -$4,163,945,707
2021 4 $108,738,637,842 -25% -$35,426,552,413
2022 4 $122,807,457,065 13% $14,068,819,223

4.3 Correlations

4.3.1 States

4.3.2 Cities

4.3.3 Counties

4.3.4 School Districts

melted_corStates <- melt(corSD)

ggplot(melted_corStates, aes(Var1, Var2, fill = value)) + geom_tile() +
geom_text(aes(label = sprintf(“%.2f”, value)), color = “black”, size = 3) +
scale_fill_gradient2(low = “red”, high = “green”, mid = “gray”, midpoint = 0) +
theme_minimal() +
theme( axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1), axis.text.y = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1)
) + labs( title = “Correlation Matrix: School Districts”,
x = ““,
y =”“,
fill =”Correlation Strength” )

4.4 OPEB

4.4.1 What happened from 2020 to 2022?

Changes in Total OPEB Unfunded Liabilities 2020-2022 by Entity
Entity Year Net OPEB Change OPEB Percent Change
State 2022 $3,500,911,339 0.67%
SD 2022 -$22,157,446,682 -7.22%
City 2022 -$25,616,493,689 -16.37%
County 2022 -$7,063,745,802 -8.02%

4.4.2 States

Changes in State OPEB Unfunded Liabilities 2020-2022
Year Net OPEB Change OPEB Percent Change
2020 $3,500,911,339 1%
2021 $3,500,911,339 1%
2022 $3,500,911,339 1%

4.4.3 Cities

4.4.4 School Districs

4.4.5 Counties

5 Asset Analysis

5.1 Debt Ratio

5.1.1 Debt Ratio of States (2022)

5.1.2 Debt Ratio of Cities (2022)

5.1.3 Debt Ratio of Counties (2022)

5.1.4 School Districts Debt Ratio (2022)

6 The Governmental Units

6.1 States

State Total Net Pension Liability
2020 $684,637,170,415.00 NA
2021 $743,183,954,659.00 8.55%
2022 $520,514,394,453.00 -29.96%

6.1.1 The States in 2022

6.1.2 Top 10 States by Liabilities 2022

State Net Pension Liability Per Capita
Illinois $139,846,404,000 $10,914.80
New Jersey $75,075,280,124 $8,082.14
California $54,169,128,000 $1,370.04
Connecticut $36,132,877,000 $10,020.37
Massachusetts $34,806,645,000 $4,951.19
Texas $30,883,865,000 $1,059.65
Kentucky $25,034,578,000 $5,555.96
Maryland $13,366,859,000 $2,163.90
Pennsylvania $12,550,399,000 $965.22
Indiana $9,781,677,000 $1,441.52

6.1.3 Top 10 States by Per Capita Liabilities 2022

State Per Capita NPL Total NPL
Illinois $10,914.80 $139,846,404,000
Connecticut $10,020.37 $36,132,877,000
New Jersey $8,082.14 $75,075,280,124
Kentucky $5,555.96 $25,034,578,000
Massachusetts $4,951.19 $34,806,645,000
Hawaii $4,345.08 $6,323,283,000
Vermont $3,906.27 $2,512,066,064
Alaska $3,253.06 $2,385,726,000
Rhode Island $2,585.82 $2,837,608,000
New Mexico $2,373.82 $5,026,620,000

6.2 Cities

Cities Total Net Pension Liability
2020 $178,384,996,141.00 NA
2021 $141,260,147,751.00 -20.81%
2022 $146,684,931,141.00 3.84%

6.2.1 The Cities in 2022

6.2.2 Top 10 Cities by Liabilities 2022

City State Net Pension Liability Per Capita
new york NY $42,349,466,000 $4,810.15
chicago IL $35,436,606,000 $12,903.16
philadelphia PA $5,386,419,000 $3,358.54
phoenix AZ $4,643,155,000 $2,887.19
los angeles CA $4,363,649,000 $1,119.24
portland OR $4,275,718,773 $6,552.64
dallas TX $4,029,247,000 $3,089.16
jacksonville FL $2,905,810,000 $3,059.98
san jose CA $2,342,879,000 $2,312.31
houston TX $2,322,472,000 $1,009.08

6.2.2.1 Top 10 Cities by Per Capita Liabilities 2022

City State Per Capita NPL Total NPL
chicago IL $12,903.16 $35,436,606,000
portland OR $6,552.64 $4,275,718,773
new york NY $4,810.15 $42,349,466,000
philadelphia PA $3,358.54 $5,386,419,000
dallas TX $3,089.16 $4,029,247,000
cincinnati OH $3,086.75 $955,536,000
jacksonville FL $3,059.98 $2,905,810,000
pittsburgh PA $3,050.90 $924,293,454
miami FL $2,942.66 $1,301,418,710
phoenix AZ $2,887.19 $4,643,155,000

6.3 Counties

Counties Total Net Pension Liability
2020 $114,215,472,120.00 NA
2021 $111,117,569,436.00 -2.71%
2022 $77,250,886,492.00 -30.48%

6.3.0.1 The Counties in 2022

6.3.1 Top 10 Counties by Net Pension Liabilities 2022

County State Net Pension Liability Per Capita
cook county IL $10,837,262,892 $2,054.25
los angeles county CA $7,030,463,000 $702.06
philadelphia PA $5,386,419,000 $3,358.54
miami-dade county FL $3,979,267,000 $1,472.84
santa clara county CA $2,989,893,000 $1,544.15
jacksonville FL $2,905,810,000 $2,918.77
city and county of honolulu HI $2,270,106,000 $2,233.24
san diego county CA $2,246,673,000 $681.09
orange county CA $2,048,680,000 $642.83
prince georges county MD $2,011,969,036 $2,080.21

6.3.2 Top 10 County by Per Capita Liabilities in 2022

County State Per Capita Total NPL
philadelphia PA $3,358.54 $5,386,419,000
jacksonville FL $2,918.77 $2,905,810,000
city and county of honolulu HI $2,233.24 $2,270,106,000
prince georges county MD $2,080.21 $2,011,969,036
cook county IL $2,054.25 $10,837,262,892
denver county CO $2,032.63 $1,454,425,000
baltimore county MD $1,863.20 $1,592,201,000
santa clara county CA $1,544.15 $2,989,893,000
kern county CA $1,541.70 $1,401,786,000
dekalb county GA $1,531.02 $1,170,291,000

6.4 School Districts

School Districts Total Net Pension Liability
2020 $234,103,265,490.00 NA
2021 $260,126,175,028.00 11.12%
2022 $219,188,455,065.70 -15.74%

6.4.1 The School Districts in 2022

6.4.2 Top 10 School Districts by Liabilities 2022

County State Net Pension Liability Per Student
Chicago Board of Education IL $14,727,410,000 $44,650.71
Chicago Board of Education IL $14,727,410,000 $44,650.71
Chicago Board of Education IL $14,727,410,000 $44,650.71
Los Angeles Unified School District CA $4,311,675,000 $9,890.12
Los Angeles Unified School District CA $4,311,675,000 $9,890.12
Los Angeles Unified School District CA $4,311,675,000 $9,890.12
School District of Philadelphia PA $3,253,100,000 $27,556.27
School District of Philadelphia PA $3,253,100,000 $27,556.27
School District of Philadelphia PA $3,253,100,000 $27,556.27
Clark County School District NV $2,167,406,738 $6,863.51

6.4.3 Top 10 School Districts by Per Student Liabilities in 2022

County State Per Student Net Pension Liability Total NPL
Chicago Board of Education IL $44,650.71 $14,727,410,000
Chicago Board of Education IL $44,650.71 $14,727,410,000
Chicago Board of Education IL $44,650.71 $14,727,410,000
School District of Philadelphia PA $27,556.27 $3,253,100,000
School District of Philadelphia PA $27,556.27 $3,253,100,000
School District of Philadelphia PA $27,556.27 $3,253,100,000
NEW YORK CITY GEOGRAPHIC DISTRICT # 2 NY $16,481.75 $937,696,211
NEW YORK CITY GEOGRAPHIC DISTRICT #10 NY $16,481.75 $937,696,211
NEW YORK CITY GEOGRAPHIC DISTRICT #20 NY $16,481.75 $937,696,211
NEW YORK CITY GEOGRAPHIC DISTRICT #24 NY $16,481.75 $937,696,211